BOOM: The Hard War in Hardware

You may occasionally find an independent hardware store in your neighborhood. However, they are becoming rare as “the big five” dominate. They are (in no particular order):

• Home Depot
• Lowe’s
• Menard
• Ace
• True Value

Over the next five years, the total hardware industry revenue is projected to grow from $59B to $75B.

Home Depot and Lowe’s seem to be engaged in a head-to-head battle (with nail guns?) for dominance in the category.

This year, Home Depot acquired SRS Distribution, a specialty trade distribution company for $18.25B  Lowe’s is planning to acquire Artisan Design Group (“ADG”) for $1.325 billion. ADG is “a leading nationwide provider of design, distribution, and installation services for interior surface finishes, including flooring, cabinets, and countertops, to national, regional, and local homebuilders and property managers,” according to a recent press announcement.

The rise in home improvement, fueled by the pandemic and the popularity of entertainment shows revolving around DIY home projects, is supporting this significant growth.

What are consumers buying beyond the usual items like nails, screws, nuts, and picture hangers? How are they shopping?

• Smart home products are growing in popularity, from doorbells and thermometers to appliances that tell you when you’re running low on milk.
• Materials and accessories for outdoor projects, such as grills, patio furniture, and gardening supplies, are popular, especially as many people leave cities for suburban and rural areas.
• BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store) is popular in the hardware category. Not only does it minimize the carrying of enormous and often heavy materials, it adds a level of convenience for home improvers who realize they are running out of paint and don’t want to clean up before getting that extra bucket.

However, a recent report by Placer.ai indicated that smaller-format stores often outperform big-box retailers.

What if you don’t have the time or energy to tackle those home projects?

The growth of MULO (multi-location) home improvement businesses appeals to that segment of the market that prefers delegation to DIY.

Neighborly, who will take the stage at Street Fight LIVE 2025, owns more than 30 home services brands (5.5K franchisees) and surpassed $4 billion in sales last year.

Hardware may not be as glamorous and exciting as fashion, cosmetics, exotic cocktails, or mini golf. But the size of the market and ongoing growth and acquisition prove that as long as homes exist, fixing, decorating, and enhancing (and perhaps even automating) them will be a fixture of the MULO ecosystem.