Will the Election Affect Holiday Shopping?

Presidential election years tend to boost holiday-season spending, regardless of who wins the most votes, according to Experian plc, a global data analytics and consumer credit reporting company.

Experian has released its 2024 Holiday Spending Trends and Insights report, and with it, the launch of contextually-Indexed Audiences. Advertisers can use this new offering to blend the precision of audience targeting with the scale and flexibility of contextual.

The company uses real-time analysis from two million websites and access to 1,400 audience segments along with easy activation through the top demand-side platform’s contextual marketplace.

If the past two elections are any indication, brands can expect a bump in consumer spending. By how much? We don’t know. In 2016, U.S. holiday retail sales were 4.1% higher in year-over-year growth. In 2020, holiday sales were 8.3% higher YoY growth following the presidential election.

For the report,  Experian looked at purchase-based data from May 2022–May 2024 to understand retail trends over the past two years. This data covers credit and debit card usage across 800 top merchants. Experian defines the holiday shopping season as October–December.

Media buyers should know the report indicates CTV will be the top channel to reach consumers this holiday season. More than 75% of the U.S. population uses a form of CTV, and the average time spent among adults could surpass two hours per day in 2024.

As the holiday season goes on, retailers should expect in-store shopping to outpace online shopping. According to the report, in-store holiday shopping peaks around December 15.

Although inflation is said to be receding, brands should be ready with coupons and promotions because consumers are still concerned about inflation. Younger consumers in particular  (Gen Z and Millennials) signaled they plan to spend more this holiday season, with the former cohort being avid coupon users.

Jeremy Meade, Vice President of Data Product Management at Experian gave StreetFight a deeper dive into the findings.

Why should advertisers prepare for an extended promotional period to consumers this holiday season?

So they can meet consumers where they are—starting their shopping early and spreading out their purchases over several months. From our recent survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers, one in three consumers said they would start their holiday shopping before October, and many will continue browsing and buying through the rest of the month and into November and December. Notably, 41% of Millennials and 38% of Gen X shoppers kicked off their shopping early, starting before October.

This isn’t about advertisers abandoning the traditional shopping spikes around Black Friday and Cyber Monday but rather adapting to this new, more extended holiday season.

It looks like holiday sales tend to peak right around mid-December? Do you expect it to peak earlier this year?

In the last two holiday seasons, we’ve seen sales peak twice — first during Cyber Week (from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) and then again in the week just before Christmas. Given those trends, I’d anticipate these peaks to continue in 2024.

However, with more consumers starting their holiday shopping earlier. With brands rolling out early promotions around events like Prime Day, it’s likely new data will show an additional peak from early to mid-October. Major players like Target and Walmart ramped up promotions to compete with Prime Day this year, which could have driven a stronger early-season boost.

Why do you think the election of a new president doesn’t affect holiday retail sales?

Election cycles can drive spending up because consumers generally feel a sense of relief or certainty once it’s over, regardless of the outcome. This post-election period tends to bring increased consumer confidence, as people settle back into routine and resume spending. So, rather than not impacting/negatively impacting holiday sales, we expect the election to create a positive bump in spending as we move into the holiday season.

What is the lure of brick-and-mortar shopping in this day and age?

We’re certainly seeing a return to in-store sales as consumers settle back into pre-pandemic habits. While online shopping boomed during the pandemic, we’re roughly four years from its start, and consumers are more comfortable returning to stores.

There’s also the impact of buy-online, pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) options that became popular during the pandemic. Now, many shoppers appreciate the flexibility of buying online and quickly picking up their items in-store — it brings them into stores, bridging the gap between digital and physical shopping.

The in-store retail experience can create an “impulse effect” that isn’t as prevalent in ecommerce. While online shopping platforms primarily organize items within categories or based on search, in-store allows for consumers to have serendipitous product-discovery moments, making it easier to see a product in context with other items.

And of course, there’s an undeniable holiday atmosphere in stores this time of year. For many, the decorations, music, and festive displays are part of the holiday experience.

Explain how the TrueTouch engagement channel works to target shoppers

Our TrueTouch engagement channel allows advertisers to target audiences with an understanding of how they prefer to interact with ads and which channels are most likely to drive engagement:

• Engagement Channel Preference: We analyze whether consumers are more likely to engage with messaging through specific channels — whether traditional media or newer platforms.
• Purchase Behavior: We look at where and how consumers prefer to shop, from the types of stores to their decision-making styles.
• Social Media Engagement: We track consumer likelihood to engage on social media channels like Meta, Instagram, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snapchat, and X, tailoring outreach to where they’re most active.

A retailer planning a digital ad campaign to promote an upcoming sale could create a TrueTouch audience of “Deal Seekers” and pair it with consumers who show a strong preference for engaging with digital ads. This tailored strategy guarantees campaigns reach consumers in ways most likely to capture attention and drive action.