Why Q5 Signals a Shift for Ecommerce in 2025
The start of a new year always marks the end of the holiday season, and as the frenzy of Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Boxing Day subsides, many retailers shift their focus away from advertising, assuming that consumer interest and spending have peaked. But in reality, a lucrative Ecommerce opportunity remains hidden in plain sight: Q5.
Q5—the period spanning late December to early January—offers a unique advantage for marketers. Often overlooked, it falls between the end of Q4’s holiday shopping peak and the fresh start of Q1. With many brands reducing their ad spend post-holidays, competition for ad inventory plummets, making acquisition costs significantly lower. In fact, our global shopping app data shows that media spend in Q5 is 59% lower than during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Consumers, meanwhile, aren’t necessarily done shopping—they may have leftover gift cards, holiday cash, or an eye for post-holiday discounts. This combination of reduced costs and lingering demand makes Q5 a time of untapped potential.
What this Means for Ecommerce in 2025
Q5 is no longer just a short-term opportunity—it sets the tone for key ecommerce trends that will shape the entire year. Here’s what brands need to consider as they build their long-term strategies:
Sustained user acquisition beyond peak periods: Unlike in previous years, app installs in Q5 don’t experience a sharp drop-off despite lower engagement metrics like sessions and purchases. This suggests that retailers are shifting toward a more sustained user acquisition strategy, balancing their investments across the year rather than focusing solely on peak seasons. The takeaway? 2025 will be about consistent customer acquisition rather than seasonal spikes.
Shifting ad costs will influence budget allocation: While campaign costs drop significantly in mid-December, we observed a slight uptick in early January, likely reflecting New Year or clearance sales campaigns. As this trend continues, expect brands to rethink their ad budget allocations, distributing spend more strategically throughout the year instead of over-investing in traditional peak periods.
Retention and engagement will be the biggest challenge: While Q5 presents an opportunity for lower-cost acquisition, keeping users engaged remains a challenge. Shopping app sessions steadily decline after Q4, even as acquisition costs remain favorable. This pattern underscores a broader shift in ecommerce: in 2025, brands must invest more in retention strategies such as loyalty programs, personalization, and app-driven engagement to maximize the value of every acquired user.
The Evolving role of Q5 in Ecommerce Strategy
Traditionally, Black Friday and Cyber Monday have dictated the high points of retail marketing strategies. However, Q5 is proving that post-holiday sales cycles and shifting consumer behaviors demand a more holistic, year-round approach. As ad costs take a sharp dive in mid-December and remain low into early January, retailers can extend their acquisition efforts well into Q1, focusing on sustained customer relationships rather than short-term transactions.
Predictions: How Retailers Can Win in 2025
Looking ahead, we anticipate several major trends that will shape ecommerce strategies throughout the year:
Retargeting will take center stage: Brands will double down on retargeting strategies, reaching users who visited a retailer’s website but never downloaded the app, or re-engaging shoppers acquired during peak periods who didn’t complete a purchase. Expect more dynamic audience segmentation to drive incremental revenue across all seasons.
App-exclusive benefits will drive long-term loyalty: More retailers will offer exclusive perks—such as loyalty programs and gamified experiences—available only through their apps. This not only encourages installs but also boosts long-term engagement and retention beyond Q5.
The rise of super apps: Retailers will increasingly integrate services within “super apps” to consolidate customer touchpoints, creating seamless shopping, rewards, and engagement experiences throughout the year.
Omnichannel loyalty programs will expand: Expect brands to blur the lines between online and offline shopping by integrating loyalty rewards across channels. For example, in-store purchases will be seamlessly linked to app-based rewards, making the mobile app a central hub for customer engagement year-round.
The Takeaway
Q5 is no longer just a seasonal anomaly—it’s a signal of broader shifts in ecommerce strategy. The lessons learned from this period highlight the importance of cost-effective acquisition, retention, and a year-round approach to customer engagement. Rather than winding down after Q4, retailers should be gearing up for sustained success in 2025. Those who invest in smart retargeting, app-exclusive perks, and omnichannel loyalty will set themselves up for long-term growth—not just in Q5, but throughout the entire year.
